New delhi • India will become one of the world’s top 10 drugs markets by 2015 as incomes rise and “lifestyle” ailments such as heart disease become more common, global consultancy McKinsey said yesterday.

Underpinning the rosy scenario for the pharmaceuticals market is an expected rise in per capita disposable income to $765 by 2015 from $463 now on the back of rapid economic expansion.

“India’s pharmaceuticals market will undergo a major transformation in the next decade,” Gautam Kumra, the co-author of a report compiled by McKinsey, said.

“Nearly 140 million people will move above the poverty line during the next decade, which should increase spending on basic health care,” he said.

The market will more than triple to $20bn by 2015 from $6.3bn today, and India will leapfrog to the 10th ranking globally, up from 14th place in 2005, overtaking Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey.

India is bracing for a worsening health crisis from chronic diseases, which already claim more lives than infectious diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis.

With growing affluence, Indians are adopting unhealthier lifestyles. Sedentary jobs, poor diets, smoking and alcohol are cited as reasons for the sharp general decline in the nation’s health.

“In the past, you only heard about acute infections but now there are more chronic ‘lifestyle’ diseases like metabolic diseases, diabetes, high blood pressure,” Kumra said.

“India already is home to the largest number of diabetics in the world and a big number of cardiovascular cases,” he said.

The World Health Organisation has forecast India will not only be the world’s heart attack capital but also the capital of diabetes and hypertension by 2020.

“The reality is that India will be a very important market for pharmaceutical companies,” Kumra said.

Generics will continue to dominate the market while patent-protected drugs will account for about 10 per cent, the report said.

The growing prevalence of lifestyle disorders and a rise in cancer cases is seen as spurring growth in more expensive speciality drugs.

The market is also being driven by aggressive drug marketing and a greater prevalence of health insurance, with the number of patients with some sort of coverage expected to double by 2015 to 220 million.

Driven largely through private investment, the number of hospital beds is expected to double to two million, while the number of doctors is expected to rise to 400,000 from 200,000.

“This is the baseline scenario” for pharmaceutical market growth, said Kumra.

Compounded annual growth could be even faster — 14 per cent instead of the projected 12.3 per cent — under which the market would reach a size of $24bn by 2015, he said.