By Pilita Clark

THE QUESTION on everyone’s lips at this week’s Dubai air show was whether Boeing would get its 787 Dreamliner airborne by the end of the year or whether the troubled programme would miss yet another deadline.

The US aerospace group has a lot riding on the new family of long-range jets, which, after industrial launch in 2004, became the fastest-selling new aircraft in history. It has suffered 70 cancellations this year as a result of the global downturn and delays to the programme but Boeing still has 840 orders booked from 55 customers - airlines and aircraft leasing companies - attracted by the promise of a lightweight aircraft that would offer unrivalled fuel efficiencies in an era of high oil prices.

The “seven-late-seven”, as the aircraft has been dubbed by some in the industry, was first unveiled to the world in July 2007 and was supposed to have its maiden flight by September that year but it remains earthbound. As the delays have mounted, the programme has claimed the scalps of a number of senior Boeing executives (see below). In August, Boeing said it would take a $2.5bn charge on the troubled programme as it announced the first test flight would take place before the end of 2009.

Jim Albaugh, the new head of Boeing’s commercial aircraft business, remains optimistic about the heavily revised timetable but not surprisingly the upbeat assessment is dosed heavily with caveats. “Based on everything I know we’re going to fly this year,” he told the Financial Times. “Unknown unknowns, they happen,” he said. “I don’t anticipate any, and if you ask me for a probability I’m smart enough not to give you one, but based on everything I know we’re going to fly.” Albaugh will draw little comfort from the fact that his counterpart at Airbus, the US group’s rival, is having an equally uncomfortable time of it.

Not only is Airbus facing a similar end-of-year deadline to deliver on a promise of a maiden flight of its much-delayed A400M military transport aircraft - the European civil aircraft makers first attempt to break into the defence market in a bid to match Boeing’s spread of business - but is also still struggling with production issues around its A380 superjumbo. Tom Enders, Airbus chief executive, was in confident mood in Dubai, raising the issue of the looming flight deadline in an interview with the FT before he was even asked if the A400M would meet it. “We think we can fly it before the end of the year,” he said.

EADS, Airbus’s parent group, has already booked €2.4bn ($3.6bn) in charges because of the A400M delays, while the A380 has cost it more than €5bn in charges. Airbus may yet face serious repercussions from these delays. South Africa recently cancelled its order for the A400M and there are fears that others may follow. For Boeing, however, the 787 programme is really pushing the boundaries of aircraft design and production. Large sections of the Dreamliner are being made of lighter plastics reinforced with carbon fibre, rather than traditional aluminium. It is these materials that enabled the aircraft maker to promise big fuel efficiencies and that made it so popular with airlines. But as well as deciding to build an aircraft with large technical demands, Boeing also decided to change its manufacturing system for the 787, outsourcing much more work to outside suppliers, which resulted in numerous unforeseen problems.

In July this year Boeing was forced to take over one of the key suppliers to the 787 in an effort to gain tighter control of the production process. It agreed to pay Vought Aircraft Industries - owned by the Carlyle Group, the private equity firm - at least $580m for a South Carolina plant that makes composite sections for the jet. The purchase was the second time Boeing had to make an acquisition to strengthen its global supply chain.

But for all the signs of confidence at the Dubai air show, many in the industry know optimism does not necessarily translate into reality. Scott Hamilton, managing director of the Leeham aviation consultancy in Washington state, was at the Paris air show nearly five months ago when Boeing executives were suggesting the 787’s first flight was imminent. Hamilton has made a number of correct predictions about Boeing, including an early call that the 787 would be delayed and another that the group would open a new production line outside Washington state. Boeing announced last month it would start a second assembly line for the 787 in South Carolina. As for whether he thinks the US manufacturer will get the 787 airborne in the next six weeks, he says: “I hear that there continues to be a long list of things that need to be done between now and the end of the year that at least some of the people close to the programme are sceptical will get done.”

If it slips to next year, he says no one would be surprised depending on the length of the delay. “If it’s December 31 or January 10, it’s kind of like, who cares at this point?” he said. “If it becomes February or March it’s a different issue.”

In a sign of the growing public interest in the issue of either the 787 or A400M making it into the sky before 2009 is out, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power was this week offering odds on which of the two aircraft would take off first. By Tuesday, Boeing had the edge over Airbus, with odds of 1-2 being offered that the 787 would fly first. The A400M, meanwhile, was available at 6-4.