WASHINGTON: The United States will not be in Afghanistan eight or nine years from now, the White House said yesterday, when asked whether the Obama administration had an exit strategy from the eight-year-old war.
Troop levels will be key to President Barack Obama’s Afghanistan strategy roll-out next week, but he is also expected to trace the outlines of an endgame, including benchmarks for the weak Afghan government.
Obama is likely to announce at least 30,000 more troops for the war, but experts and officials say a narrow focus on resources misses the point entirely, echoing the view of the US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal.
How and when Obama plans to get troops home to avoid the costly and unpopular eight-year conflict being dubbed his “endless war” will be as important as the troop numbers.
Former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel, who chaired Obama’s review in March of Afghanistan and Pakistan policy, said he did not see a shift from the president’s strategic goal to dismantle, defeat and disrupt Al Qaeda, the Taliban and its allies.
But what will be different will be his bid to explain an exit strategy - a demand by some in his Democratic Party but seen by many Republicans as evidence the president is soft on security.
Talk of withdrawal - even if he does not actually use that word - is also likely to anger key ally Pakistan, which fears Washington will pull out of Afghanistan as it did in the Soviet-era, and embolden the Taliban.
“This will have to be done with a great deal of care. If the focus is already on how to get out then this could have a great impact on the Taliban and also Pakistan,” said Riedel, who is with the Brookings Institution.
Part of finishing the job as Obama calls it, includes more commitment and coordination among allies fighting with US forces and he is expected to ask European nations to offer up between 5,000 and 10,000 forces, Riedel said. Another key tenet will be a demand for stepped up efforts by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose legitimacy was tarnished after a fraud-plagued August election.
“Clearly the Afghan government is key to our success - no matter how you gauge success,” said Senator Ted Kaufman.
Meanwhile, Russia has called for two special meetings with Nato on unrest and drug trafficking in Afghanistan amid growing concern about the alliance’s future there, Moscow’s Nato envoy said.
“We hope we can hold two meetings in an enlarged format with experts, including on Afghanistan,” Russian Ambassador Dmitry Rogozin told reporters at Nato headquarters in Brussels after talks with alliance counterparts.
