Nuclear Mideast may be in world’s energy interest Friday, 03 June 2011 02:30

A nuclear-powered Middle East may be in the world’s energy interest. Even before the Arab spring, nuclear power was seen as a top priority for the region’s rulers. Nuclear power will help oil exporters maintain financial stability, reduce the pressure to cut subsidies, and help global supply of fossil fuel. But the recent violent political instability puts the region’s nuclear ambitions into sharper perspective.

Japan’s Fukushima disaster has already prompted a German government decision to shut down reactors. A moratorium has been declared in Italy, where a popular vote on the matter is scheduled for June 12. But the Middle East’s nuclear determination looks as strong as ever. Iran is close to launching its first power plant. The United Arab Emirates expect the first of four reactors to be operational by 2017 under a $20-billion tender awarded to South Korea’s Kepco. Saudi Arabia said this week that it aims to build 16 reactors by 2030 at a total cost of $100bn or more.

The rulers of fast-growing hydrocarbon economies see little alternative. Take the UAE. Electricity demand is forecast to grow at 9 percent per year over the next decade, according to consultancy Freshfields. Population growth and urbanisation has upped demand for desalination and air-conditioning. Buildings are over-chilled. But fossil fuels are more valuable when sold on international markets. The UAE is already dependent on gas from Qatar to meet its needs, while Saudi is burning precious oil.

Increasing the part of nuclear power in domestic consumption would allow for more sales of oil and gas on international markets and limit the waste of hydrocarbons induced by low, subsided prices. Even in the UAE, where petrol prices are amongst the highest in the six-nation GCC, consumers pay only a quarter of what their UK counterparts stump up.

Until the Arab Spring, the US seemed open to civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and Jordan. That’s on top of existing American support for the UAE programme, which is seen as a model of transparency. Enthusiasm has now cooled, on the assumption that less stable nations pose a greater threat of diverting nuclear materials for military purposes. After all, US support for nuclear cooperation with the Shah shortened Iran’s path to producing nuclear weapons.

A nation-by-nation approach is sensible, but international outcry against nuclear power in the Middle East is likely to remain muted. If major hydrocarbon importers are turning their back on nuclear energy, they can’t afford for oil exporters to all do the same.

• Saudi Arabia plans to build 16 nuclear power reactors by 2030 which could costs more than $100bn, said a Saudi official on June 1.

• “After 10 years we will have the first two reactors”, Abdul Ghani bin Melaibari, coordinator of scientific collaboration at King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, told Arab News.

• In December, a South Korean consortium lead by Kepco won a $20bn tender from the UAE to build four 1,400-MW reactors, the largest energy deal in the Middle East. The UAE expects nuclear energy to eventually make up 25 percent of its power requirements and a further 7 percent from renewable sources.

• Almost every state in the Middle East and North Africa has expressed an interest in or are actively planning to introduce nuclear power, according a paper published in August last year by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

• Germany plans to shut all its nuclear reactors by 2022, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling coalition said on May 31, in a policy reversal in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster.

• There were 440 nuclear power plant reactors in operation worldwide with a capacity of 37,4093 MW at the end of May, according to the IAEA.

Reuters