Lingering Gaddafi networks pose threat Thursday, 25 August 2011 02:53

By William Maclean

Resurgent violence in Tripoli shows Muammar Gaddafi’s threat of a counter-revolutionary “volcano” in Libya is far from idle, with die-hard fighters, secret arms stashes and possibly tribal solidarity favouring his bid to cripple a rebel takeover.

For Gaddafi, staying alive and evading capture are the supreme immediate imperatives, for his sons are believed to lack the political clout to rally significant numbers of Libyans against rebel rule in the event of his death. To that end, Gaddafi is likely to be counting on aides who are reputed to have built and maintained a network of tunnels under the city for use in the event of a threat to Gaddafi’s rule, which has seen off several coup attempts over the decades.

His security experts will know the location of emergency arms stockpiles and may seek access to a research centre near Tripoli said by a former UN inspector to stock uranium and other material that might be used for a nuclear “dirty bomb”.

The UK-based Exclusive Analysis risk forecasting company said that the main terrorist threat emanating from Libya in the next six months was likely to be from Gaddafi loyalists. It cited the case of a Libyan soldier who gave himself up to Tunisian authorities in Tunis, saying he had been sent by Gaddafi’s army to bomb an Arab embassy in the capital.

Libyan state television has routinely accused Arab states Qatar and the United Arab Emirates of being “traitors” for supporting a rebel offensive seeking to topple Gaddafi. “A lot depends on the strength and effectiveness of his support network,” said Ben Barry, a former British Army brigadier and now a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London (IISS).

“(Ratko) Mladic and (Radovan) Karadzic had good support, access to income and links to political extremists and organised crime. If Gaddafi has similar connections, he will be better able to make himself hard to find,” he said, referring to Bosnian Serb leaders now at the Yugoslav war crimes court.

Gaddafi takes ostentatious pride in his record as a plotter and clandestine operator. The Tripoli Museum on Green Square in the centre of the city has for years displayed the venerable VW Beetle he used to travel around the country when secretly planning the 1969 putsch that toppled King Idriss.

Those reflexes may have dulled over the years, but Gaddafi, if he still has access to large amounts of money, may well be able to cause trouble by buying support from Libyan tribes. His hometown of Sirte is heavily defended by members of his Gaddafa tribe, and the security situation in the southwest of the vast desert country is unclear.

Alex Warren, of the Frontier MEA consultancy, said that old feuds in the south might revive in the collapse of any remaining law and order in coming weeks. The abundance of weapons now circulating throughout the country also boded ill. “Whoever wins the battle for Tripoli has not necessarily won the war for Libya,” he said.

Analysts say they expect efforts are underway to negotiate a ceasefire around Sirte, possibly in return for the appointment of a senior Gaddafa clansman into a post-war authority.

But the bigger picture, for now, remains broadly favourable to the rebels’ chances of stabilising Tripoli.

Western governments are racing to help the rebels shut down his access to emergency arms stashes and prevent him resorting to any leftover material for a nuclear “dirty bomb” stored at the Tajoura research centre on Tripoli’s outskirts.

But the most important factor against him may simply be that opposition to his rule, suppressed for decades, has sprung exuberantly into the open with the entry of rebel troops.

For now that gives the rebels and their Arab and Western backers the political cover to carry out the violent steps likely to be needed to rid Tripoli of his die-hard supporters and capture the defiant former strongman. Whether the rebels can stabilise large swathes of the interior is less clear.

Many Libya analysts say the time for a political deal has long gone, and Gaddafi’s fate will be settled at gunpoint.

In Benghazi, Omar Hariri, the National Transitional Council’s (NTC) military affairs chief, told Reuters: “I don’t think he will fight (to the death). He has nothing to fight with. He’s on his last gasp, but he won’t surrender easily.” “For him to surrender we have to know here he is. God willing, he won’t slip away.”

Shashank Joshi, of the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, said he was optimistic a post-war Libya would not descend into the chaos that hit Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein. “We have solid grounds for optimism. We should not assume chaos will be the inevitability or highly probable,” he said. “It’s an absolute certainty that British (officials), working with other foreign diplomats . have been thinking about ways in which to manage the transition smoothly. They have not left this to chance, at least on paper. Because for obvious reasons the shadow of Iraq hangs over all the participants in this venture.”

REUTERS