Lebanon may split: Expert Tuesday, 25 January 2011 02:30

DOHA: A celebrated regional security expert sees Lebanon either slipping into Hezbollah’s control or splitting into two — with the south going to Hezbollah and the north remaining with Christians and Sunni Muslims.

“Qatar and Saudi Arabia, probably, realised this and decided to pull out of the negotiations to end the Lebanese political imbroglio,” said Dr Sami Alfaraj, head of Kuwait-based Center for Strategic Studies.

He was here on a brief visit and told The Peninsula in an interview yesterday that if Hezbollah took charge of Lebanon, it would eventually mean Iran controlling
the country.

But as Alfaraj was speaking, the political crisis brewing in Beirut deepened with Hezbollah backing business magnate Najib Mikati as prime minister and the toppled premier, Saad Al Hariri, ruling out joining a Hezbollah-backed regime.

Alfaraj warned that with the situation worsening, Hezbollah activists could take to the streets to stop the UN tribunal from pursuing its mandate.”

“My prediction is that Lebanon could either split or slip completely into Hezbollah’s control.”

The worst scenario, according to him, could be Israel stepping in, while the “best option” would be Turkey’s intervention in the aftermath of any radical development taking place in Lebanon. “But either of the situation that emerges would paint Arabs in bad light as it would show that they are weak,” said the expert.

When the Doha talks were held initially to resolve the Lebanese crisis, one important element of the agreement reached was that the government would not be brought down. But the pledge was broken.

Alfaraj said the Iranian nuclear issue and Lebanon were central to the foreign policy of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Iran developing nuclear weapons could tip the balance of power in the region which could eventually lead to a full-scale war (with either the US or Israel stepping in).

Peace and stability in the GCC region not only hold the key to world energy supply security but are also crucial to many economies around the globe.

People from more than 202 nationalities have employment in the region and remit funds home, contributing to the economies of their respective countries.

Countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have earmarked in their budgets more than an astronomical $1tr to revamp their infrastructure.

Instability in the region would, thus, destroy the prospects of progress — of both the local as well as expatriate populations, said Alfaraj.

“So expatriates should never think it is GCC versus Iran. They are equal stakeholders in peace and stability in the region,”  he said.     THE PENINSULA

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