Time running out for Assad Thursday, 20 October 2011 05:29

The Arab foreign ministers, in their emergency meeting in Cairo on Monday, gave Syrian President Bashar Al Assad 15 days to hold a national dialogue to resolve the political crisis in the country. They also agreed to form a committee, to be led by Qatar, to facilitate the meeting of the Syrian government and opposition leaders at the Arab League headquarters and monitor the situation.

Prime Minister and Foreign Minister H E Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jabor Al Thani, who chaired that meeting, said: “A national dialogue in 15 days is one of the most important decisions of the day.”

These 15 days are indeed crucial for the Assad regime. It is the last chance for him to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis in his country, a final opportunity for him to listen to what the Syrian people want from their government.

In an interview with Aljazeera last week, the Emir H H Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani emphasised on the urgent need to stop the killings in Syria. He told Aljazeera that “there is an Arab action towards what is happening in Syria,” adding “naturally the Arab countries and the Arab League are on the move…what is now required concerning the situation in Syria is to stop the killings and find a room for the people to discuss the matter among themselves and refrain from almost daily killings.” A recent report by the United Nations found that 3,000 people have been killed since the protests started in March, at least 187 of them children, according to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay.

The number of children killed in Syria in seven months since protests began is unprecedented. Other countries, except for Libya for which reliable records are not available, that experienced the Arab Spring revolution did not see such huge casualties among children. How many more of Syria’s children must die before Assad takes concrete action to end the bloodshed?

Assad has been given an honourable opening by the Arab League to negotiate with the opposition and stop the loss of more innocent lives.

He had attempted to placate the opposition several times during the year by taking half-hearted, cosmetic reforms or promises of that. But the people are not buying his ploy. Recently, he issued a decree forming a national committee to draft a new constitution within four months. However, a constitution drafted by the regime can also be changed by the regime itself as it was done when Assad came to power. That’s why the Syrian people do not believe in Assad’s promises of reforms and a new constitution.

The Arab League has given Damascus a chance to stop the bloodshed and have a true dialogue with the opposition. The regime, naturally, is not happy with the League decision. Youssef Ahmad, Syria’s ambassador to the Arab League, said in a statement that “any national dialogue can only be held in Syria.”

He was also wary about the role Qatar is playing in overseeing the situation in his country saying that the meeting’s timing “is strange and suspect.” Syria has long accused Qatar of being biased against Assad and having its own agenda.

Qatar’s Prime Minister, however, reassured them that the meeting was not convened “under any agenda but to show concern for Syria and the Syrian people,” adding, “Your brothers want to help.”

If Qatar had any hidden agenda in Syria, it would not have waited this long to take action. Qatar could have made its move when the protests started in March.

Nevertheless, Qatar’s foreign policy has been clear from the beginning. It has always been in line with the Arab League or with the international institutions like in the case of Libya.

The Emir said in his speech during the recent UN General Assembly: “On the one hand we have always had a clear policy with regard to the rules governing our Arab, regional and international relations; rules that are based on understanding, reconciliation and harmony among peoples and nations. On the other hand, we as well as others, have been unable to turn a deaf ear or a blind eye to the calls of the wounded seeking help from near and far, against an entrenched oppression”

The almost daily death toll in the crackdown against protesters and high rate of children being killed has prompted Qatar to act and contribute to find a solution to stem the bloodshed and end the violence.

We repeat our call (in this column) to the international community, especially the United States and Europe, that they should not be intimidated by Assad’s threat and take stronger measures before it’s too late.

The Arab League has already given Assad’s government and the opposition a chance to talk and work out a peaceful solution that hopefully will bring about reforms in the country.

We see the Syrian situation unfold in one of three ways:

One, Assad’s government actually goes for a national dialogue and talks directly with the opposition under the supervision of the Arab League. The government then takes serious action and fulfils their promise to implement reforms in the country, stopping the bloodshed and violence in the process. However, given that Assad, despite his initial promise, has brought scant reforms during his 10 years in power, his current actions in the face of public outcry for change, we do not see that happening anytime soon.

Two, as the United Nations has warned, the country descends into a “full-blown civil war”. The government lets fighting continue for a long time among different groups in the country, in order to divide the country and thus legitimize its rule, similar to what happened in Sudan, Somalia and Lebanon in the past.

The third scenario which we see occurring is that the protesters continue their peaceful protest under the unifying force of the Syrian National Council. Eventually some groups may split from the army and some of Syria’s own ambassadors instance themselves from the government. That will lead to even more repression and violence. The worsening situation in the country will force the international community to intervene and impose stronger sanctions on Syria similar to what they did by imposing a “no fly zone” on Libya and recognise the Syrian National Council as official representatives of the Syrian people.

The way we see it now is that the 15-day deadline is not for Assad’s government but rather for the international community before they will start taking a tougher stance against Syria because if he wanted to bring in reform, he would have done it 10 years ago when he took power.

In the meantime, we can only wait for the remaining days of the deadline to see how it plays out.

However, we feel that the situation in Syria is just one phase of the Arab Spring and that sooner or later as His Highness the Emir said in his speech when he visited Macedonia a few days ago that the Arab world is now looking towards freedom and is on the threshold of a new phase in its history.  He expressed his hope that this freedom will be translated into creativity, work, production and governance.

The Peninsula