The future of Afghanistan begins in Qatar Wednesday, 11 January 2012 01:56

Recent news reports about plans for the Taliban to open an office in Qatar, many analysts believe, is the precursor to talks between the United States and the Taliban and possibly a way forward for the Obama administration’s intentions of ending the war in Afghanistan.

The war in Afghanistan began in October 2001 – three months after the 9/11 attacks in the US by Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda. Since Al Qaeda was based in Afghanistan and enjoyed the protection of the Taliban, US launched an invasion of the country with the goal of eliminating Al Qaeda.

Most people, including the US military, thought the war would be over in a few months, but the war in Afghanistan turned out to be the longest in US history surpassing that of Vietnam. The US and Nato troops are still battling widespread Taliban insurgency after more than a decade.

According to the Brookings Institution’s Afghanistan Index, 1,841 US troops have died while 14,969 were wounded in action since the war started in 2001.

An estimated 352,000 people have been internally displaced in the country as of December 2010. Although there are no official figures available for the total number of civilians killed since 2001, estimates say that tens of thousands of civilians have perished in the ongoing war.

Aside from being the longest, the war in Afghanistan is also one of costliest the US has ever embarked on with an expenditure reaching $489bn and counting, as indicated by the costofwar.com website which tracks the cost of war per second.

After 11 years of fighting, the US has finally recognised the need for talks with the Taliban especially after the group changed its tactics and instead of going in hiding they are pushing the insurgency with a guerrilla war against US troops.

The US has realized that current Afghan President Hamid Karzai has little control over the country, except in small pockets in the vast country. In order for them to have a viable exit strategy from this drawn-out war, they have to start negotiating with the Taliban.

In 2009, while monitoring the elections in Afghanistan, former US President Jimmy Carter said: “Every time we launch one of our unmanned drones from Kansas and kill 100 people, we make 100,000 new enemies.” Carter added: “I would negotiate with locals” instead of increasing the number of troops.

There is an estimated 40 million Pashtuns around the world, including more than 14 million in Afghanistan and 28 million in Pakistan. Aside from the big number, the Pashtuns have a strong influence in Central Asia and family ties run deep. Therefore, it is important, as Carter said, that US holds talks and negotiates with Taliban since most of its members belong to this major ethnic group in Afghanistan.

Recently Vice-President Joe Biden caused controversy when he told Newsweek in an interview that “the Taliban per se is not our enemy,”

He added: “There is not a single statement that the president has ever made in any of our policy assertions that the Taliban is our enemy because it threatens US interests.”

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland also said in comments to Foreign Policy’s The Cable that they “would support reconciliation” with “those Taliban who are willing to come off the battlefield, renounce violence, break ties with Al Qaeda, support the constitution of Afghanistan, be part of a political process….”

In a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in November last year, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger said: “I have no objection in principle to negotiating with the Taliban.” But he added that “If there is a negotiations with the Taliban, it should be in the framework of a multilateral regional negotiation.”

Talking to Taliban

US President Barack Obama announced last year that the US will withdraw its troops and eventually hand over security to Afghan authorities in 2014. By having talks with the Taliban, it could be a way for the US to bring the group into the political sphere and be part of the Afghan government.

There are a lot of parallels between the administrations of President Obama and former US President Lyndon Johnson.

In the beginning of Johnson’s term, he believed that he had to contain the influence of communism that’s why he reversed his predecessor’s order to withdraw military personnel and instead increased the number of troops during the Vietnam War.

But as casualties increased, Johnson’s policy became unpopular with the American public and he realised that he could not win the war so he sought for a peace settlement. President Obama faces the same situation today.

However, President Obama’s decision to negotiate with the Taliban is quite suspect especially as it comes ahead of elections coming up in November this year.

One of the promises that President Obama made during his campaign for the presidency was to shut down Guantanamo Bay prison. He has yet to fulfil that promise.

Could it be that by talking to the Taliban, Obama’s administration is moving toward closing a chapter in the Afghan war by negotiating the release of the remaining Guantanamo prisoners and at the same time fulfilling Obama’s promise of closing the prison?

The Taliban has already demanded that some prisoners held in Guantanamo Bay be transferred to Qatar. Recently, they had called for the release of three senior leaders in exchange for an American soldier captured in Afghanistan two-and-a-half years ago.

However, this could be a potential problem for Qatar, especially since provisions in the country’s Constitution does not allow anyone to be detained without trial. Article 36 in the Qatar Constitution states that “Personal freedom shall be guaranteed and no person may be arrested, detained, searched, neither may his freedom of residence and mobility be restricted save under the provisions of the law; and no person may be subjected to torture, or any degrading treatment; and torture shall be considered a crime punishable by law.”

By holding talks with the Taliban, it seems that the US is trying to apply a divide-and-conquer approach in order to separate the Taliban from Al Qaeda (Afghan and from Arab countries) so that it can limit and contain the Taliban’s reach and influence to Afghanistan only.

This indicates that Al Qaeda’s influence has somehow lessened to a certain extent especially with Bin Laden’s death. Since then, we have not heard any news about Al Qaeda’s activities.

Also, the Arab Spring that has swept the Middle East region in the past year has greatly diminished Al Qaeda’s influence.

People empowered

Although the ideologies connected to Bin Laden and Al Qaeda might not have disappeared completely, it has weakened because the people became empowered and have realised that they can get their demands on their own without having to support certain kind or ideologies. The Arab Spring has shown that the people themselves can make the changes they want for their societies.

Now that the old ideologies no longer have the influence it once had, the West is now marketing a new kind of ideology which is moderate Islam as embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups that have gained power through elections after the old Arab regimes were overthrown.

However, the events of the past should serve as a precaution to Western countries who are trying to push these ideas so that history does not repeat itself.

By hosting the Taliban office in Qatar, the country can once again play an essential role in the future of Afghanistan.

Aside from the presence of the US base, Qatar’s own security and stability provides the perfect environment for US-Taliban talks. Also, Qatar has always had a reputation for being an advocate for reform. What better way for the country to showcase this than by becoming the mediator between the US and a new and reformed Taliban. By doing so, Qatar can become a leader in incorporating moderate Islam into the political arena.

The Peninsula