Will 2012 see a Persian Spring? Thursday, 19 January 2012 05:12

Tensions between Iran and the West have risen dangerously once again, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, the main oil supply route, in retaliation for sanctions imposed on its oil exports in its ongoing row over the country’s nuclear programme.

Iran has also warned neighbouring Gulf countries not to raise their oil output to make up the shortage due to the Iran embargo. Tehran’s Opec Governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi said, “The consequences of this issue are unpredictable. Therefore our Arab neighbour countries should not cooperate with these adventurers and should adopt wise policies.”

However, Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al Naimi has already said that his country was “always obliged” to meet demand, indicating it was willing to make up the oil supply shortage caused by the sanctions against Iran. The recent killing of an Iranian nuclear scientist, Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, has further heightened the hostility.

Tehran as accused Washington of masterminding the killing and had sent a letter through the Swiss Embassy in Tehran stating that they have “reliable documents and evidence that this terrorist act was planned, guided and supported by the CIA”

 

Iran’s belligerent  stance towards the West belies its own domestic problems. The real problem in Iran is internal rather than external.

Iran’s situation now is similar to Iraq’s before they invaded Kuwait. Iraq was undergoing economic crisis at that time due to its inability to pay the money it borrowed to finance its war with Iran. Similarly, Iran is currently facing both a political and a financial crisis, with internal conflicts among government officials and now looming sanctions against its oil export. Iran is indeed in a desperate situation.

Last year, the country was rocked by one of the biggest corruption scandals in its history over a $2.8bn bank fraud allegedly committed by allies of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This has angered ordinary Iranians who are struggling with double-digit inflation and unemployment rates. The 2011 Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International ranked Iran at 120 and one of the “highly corrupt” countries in the world.

Recently, reports have surfaced that Ahmadinejad has accused Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for allegedly misappropriating funds from the state treasury.

The 2009 elections in Iran have seen an unprecedented opposition to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s victory over his rival, Mir-Hossein Mousavi. Clashes between government and opposition groups erupted while groups calling for reforms were arrested in a series of raids. Ahmadinejad’s second term as president certainly was not smooth as indicated in the corruption scandals and the seemingly internal conflict in Iran’s government between Ahmadinejad and the supporters of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeni.

US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta said in a CBS news programme Face the Nation, that “…the responsible thing to do right now is to keep putting diplomatic and economic pressure on them to force them to do the right thing. And to make sure that they do not make the decision to proceed with the development of a nuclear weapon.”

This wait-and-see attitude adopted by the West shows that they are just biding their time and waiting how the internal unrest in Iran plays out – if it escalate into full-blown protests similar to what happened in the Arab Spring, wherein Arab people in the countries experiencing the same situation as Iran decided to take matters into their own hands.

However, if Iran carries its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, it will lead to a big problem for their economy since it will drive up the price of oil. Already, Iran’s inflation is at 19.1 percent as of November last year, which rose from 18.3 percent in October 2011. Closing the strait will be self-defeating since most of Iran’s economy is derived from oil revenues.

Tehran’s belligerence against the West is a cover-up for its own domestic problems. Corruption, unemployment and high inflation – these are the real problems facing Iran now.

Let’s remember that these were the things that triggered the ongoing Arab Spring that has spread to most of the countries in the Middle East. If the ruling dispensation fails to wisely manage Iran’s internal conflicts, there could be a possibility that 2012 will see the dawn of the Persian Spring?

The Peninsula