Editorial

Kuwaitis crossed the first post, fourth time in six years, in its half a century old experiment in incremental democratic polity with some 60 percent of the 400,000 electorate exercising its franchise by 8pm last evening when the polls closed. The counting of votes began immediately with the first results expected early today. But that’s only the easy first step.

Pollsters have given the opposition as many as 33 seats in the 50-member National Assembly based on pre-election surveys. The snap poll came after the Emir dissolved parliament following months of standoff between the government of former prime Sheikh Nasser Mohammed Al Ahmed Al Sabah and legislators over allegations of corruption ( leading to his resignation) and unprecedented protests led by the youth.

A highly charged campaign run on demands for meaningful political reforms and transparent, participatory governance and a young population getting increasingly restive with gusts of Arab Spring wind swirling around them will not make the task of the new government any easier.

While a strong opposition in the House holds the promise of pushing the reform agenda forward if they are able to manage public opinion in their favour and broaden their powers by taking a more inclusive approach, but it also has the potential to hold up legislations and frustrate the ordinary citizens already weary of the lack of progress and slow economic growth.

The new prime minister will do well to pick more MPs to his cabinet and work on progressive legislations to bring about meaningful changes and plug the structural loopholes in the polity and thereby eliminate, or at least, reduce the tension between the executive and legislative wings of the government. He must diligently work on reviving a sluggish economy. The country has seen the GCC’s slowest-growth in the past five years, according to the International Monetary Fund. It grew at an average 2.6 percent, compared with the United Arab Emirates’ 4.2 percent, Bahrain’ 5.7 percent and a whopping 18 percent growth in Qatar. A large portion of the blame for that can be put on the executive-legislative standoff. In the country’s polity the government is headed by a prime minister appointed by the Emir, so far a senior member of the ruling family, and parliament has more ability to block its actions than shape them.

Kuwait created the Gulf’s first elected parliament half a century ago. Will it now provide its neighbours a role model in parliamentary governance?

A statement from the Taliban yesterday that they had no plan to hold peace talks with the Karzai government in Saudi Arabia is welcome and will help quash rumours about concerns in Kabul about the planned American-Taliban peace talks brokered by Qatar. The government of Hamid Karzai is reported to be peeved at being left out of these talks, and is said to have launched its own efforts to talk peace with Taliban.

In the past few weeks, the main news on Afghanistan has been that America and Taliban are willing to talk to find a negotiated solution to the insurgency. Qatar is playing a significant role in these efforts by letting Taliban open an office in Doha, and becoming a mediator between the two sides. The fact that Taliban has expressed its willingness to talk to its foes is seen as a major achievement and an opportunity that should not be missed and reports that the Afghan government is making parallel efforts to talk to the Taliban had caused confusion and concern about the efficacy of US-Taliban talks.

“There is no truth in the published reports saying that the delegation of the Islamic Emirate would meet with representatives of the Karzai government in Saudi Arabia in the near future,” the Taliban said on their website. Afghan officials too have said that no steps had been taken to start talks in Saudi Arabia.

The Taliban also said they had not yet “reached the negotiation phase with the US and its allies”. This could be true, because the talks held so far can be classified as ‘preliminary’ which can set the stage for more serious, detailed talks.

Despite the Taliban statement yesterday, there were reports in the media that the Karzai government is not sufficienty involved in the Qatar-mediated talks. If that’s true, there is a need to make up for the lapses. For that to happen, the Karzai government must shed its inhibitions about associating with Qatar, if there is any. No one can doubt the sincerity and good intentions of Qatar in the mediation role it has undertaken so far, and as the negotiations make further progress, Doha will be capable of persuading the government in Kabul to join the talks in full force. A solution to the Afghan issue is unthinkable without the wholehearted support of Karzai government and the time has for all parties, including the Nato, Taliban, the Afghan government and Pakistan to realise that continued bloodshed and uncertainty will make no side a victor.

The road to peace in Afghanistan is riddled with potholes. Only determination and genuine desire to reach the destination can bring success and minor snags on the road can derail the journey.

Russia has been adamant in its support for embattled Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Moscow is an ally Damascus can rely on, and an ally that stands by you even when the entire world is teaming up against you is a true ally. So Assad should be grateful to Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his team, and must be wondering what his plight would have been had it not been for this support.

But Russia must realize that such blind and unwavering support for a regime hated by its own people, neighbours and the international community, is not in its interests. It is true that Russia enjoys a veto power at the UN Security Council and can thwart attempts to impose sanctions against Syria in the short-term, but gradually Moscow will find itself getting overtaken by events.

The Arab League plan was probably the best solution to avoid a full-scale civil war and stop further bloodshed. But that mission failed because the Assad regime didn’t take it seriously. Since the failure of the League’s observer mission last week, violence has increased, piling more pressure on Arabs and the Western governments to stop the bloodshed. They are planning to go via the UN. Nabil El Araby, the secretary general of the Arab League, was scheduled to present a plan at the UN yesterday to end the swelling violence by calling for Assad to step down and be replaced by a coalition government that will organize elections. The League has the support of US and other western governments in its plan, while Russia opposes any action, saying a UN intervention would tantamount to crossing the red line.

One reason Assad has been able to hold on to power is Russian support – both material and diplomatic. For the same reason, the battle in Damascus can be won only through Moscow.

The reasons for Russian support are understandable and date back to the days of Soviet Union. Syria is one of its few allies in the region and has business interests to the tune of billions of dollars in arms sales. But the time has come for Moscow to realise that this is a relationship that can’t be sustained. As Syria descends into civil war and the international community moves forward with determination, Russian opposition will be swept away. A combined, high-level lobbying by the rest of the world will force Moscow to step back and lead to its isolation. History has shown us that dictators are thrown out by their own people. Outside support for any regime cannot thwart people power.

The world’s newest nation is in crisis. South Sudan, which came into existence less than a year ago, is grappling with a slew of issues which, though don’t threaten its existence, can find its future fatally crippled. South Sudan seceded from Kharotum in July under a 2005 peace agreement which put to an end decades of civil war that had claimed thousands of lives, but both sides are yet to disentagngle a number of issues which is crucial for both sides to move forward, especially for South Sudan.

The biggest dispute between the two is about sharing the oi revenues. The South is home to all the oil which undivided Sudan was once exporting, but the pipelines to export the oil run through the North. Khartoum has demanded transit fees for its share of the work, which it says is yet to be decided and paid, while the South claims Khartoum is pilfering oil and in retaliation recently shut down all oil production. The decision has hurt both sides badly, though it hurts Juba more as more than 90 percent of its income comes from oil. As a North Sudanese official said, stopping the oil supplies will hurt Khartoum badly, but it ‘will kill’ the South.

Oil is connected to other disputes and therefore can’t be addressed separately. Cross-border violence (as the border is loosely marked) and territorial disputes have further complicated the situation. Omar Hassan  Al Bashir’s government claims that rebels loyal to the Sudan People’s Liberation army (SPLA) in the south but based in the northern states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile are being helped by Juba. Juba has denied any role, but the tribal and political rivalry running deep among rebel groups makes this denial suspect. And North Sudanese forces have entered the South in pursuit of rebels and many rebels have been killed in these operations. In short, both sides haven’t yet renounced the conflict and are continuing the rivalry through other means.

The fact is that the secession has cost both sides heavily. The North finds its economy in deep straits after losing the oil income. The West, especially the US, has to take part of the blame for its current plight. The US, which pressed Khartoum to honour the 2005 comprehensive peace agreement and allow the south the secede, has since then failed to honour its own promises to the North, like lifting the economic sanctions and providing debt relief.

The North and South need to solve their differences on their own. Both the countries are so inextricably linked that the stability of one is impossible without the cooperation of the other. The African Union and friendly countries must push them to choose peace.