Putin’s comeback Monday, 26 September 2011 03:30

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s announcement on Saturday that Vladimir Putin would run for presidency in 2012 should hardly come as a surprise. Addressing the ruling United Russia party congress and ending months of speculation, Medvedev said: “I think it’s right that the party congress support the candidacy of the head of the government, Vladimir Putin, in the role of the country’s president.” In a switching of roles, Medvedev said he was ready to serve as prime minister under Putin.

Some would see the latest development as the emergence of soft authoritarianism in Russia because if reelected next year, which is a certainty, Putin is likely to remain in Kremlin until 2024. That’s a long period in power which only dictators have been able to enjoy and the world will be keenly watching how Russians will react to that possibility. Even now, working as prime minister under Medvedev after serving two terms as president, Putin is regarded as the real power in the country without whose blessing no major decisions are taken. And he has stayed at the forefront of the nation’s imagination through his regular media appearances to pave the way for his comeback. Putin will also benefit from the constitutional changes pushed through by Medvedev, extending president’s term to six years from four years.

No one will doubt Putin’s real popularity or that of his United Russia party. But doubts remain, even fears, about his commitment to true democracy. The power he enjoys has been gained at the expense of a genuine opposition or a free media, both of which have been targeted by him and his supporters. Journalists in Russia are not able to operate fairly and fearlessly, and that has meant Putin’s actions have not received a critical review.

The West may not look favourably to Putin’s return. For them, it can mean another decade of difficult relations with Russia. During his first two stints as president, he had demonstrated a gift at G8 gatherings and other international meetings for openness and sardonic repartee mixed with snide remarks about western hypocrisy and double-dealing. He is likely to continue the same habit.

However, much will depend on how Putin governs his country. Economic growth and development can blunt the accusations of his critics and can endear him to the people. He has already set forth an ambitious programme of economic growth, promising that in the next few years Russia will find a place among the world’s leading economies and average wages and salaries will rise 50 per cent to $1,000 by 2014.

At the same time, in his speech, he stressed the need for “political stability”. There lies the danger.