Syrian stalemate Thursday, 29 September 2011 03:17

The Syrian spring has stalled. Worse, it runs the serious risk of degenerating into a civil war, with terrible consequences for ordinary Syrians who have lived in harmony for decades though under a dictatorship.

As the revolution drags on with no end in sight, sectarianism is raising its dangerous head – Sunnis against Alawites, Muslims against Christians and a number other combinations. The opposition had previously warned that Assad would resort to a divide-and-rule tactic to hang to power and the premonition is coming true. Reports say an armed resistance has begun against Assad’s forces, and thousands of troops have defected to join the opposition. All this is bad news because arms in the hands of the public means a guaranteed ticket to chaos. An armed uprising will give an excuse to Assad to unleash more brutalities and the law of the jungle will prevail.

The Syrian revolution stands out from other revolutions for a single reason: confusion. President Bashar Al Assad and his opponents are not confused – Assad has has used brutal force to suppress the dissent, while the opposition has been equally adamant, continuing their struggle in the face of bullets. Confusion has been the main component of the international reaction to the conflict. The West and Arab allies of Syria didn’t have a uniform position and reacted differently to the uprising. The former was largely supportive of the people’s aspirations, but faint in their response and changed their positions depending on the progress on the ground. The US first urged Assad to implement reforms, then imposed sanctions and now is calling for Assad to step down. The Arab allies restricted their response to exhortations to Assad to launch reforms.

Syria’s military has long been divided along sectarian lines and most expect that the units most dedicated to Assad -- made up largely of Alawites -- will remain loyal. That could leave neither side with the strength to win and open the door to months or years of war.

It’s now time for the international community to step in and take a united stand. Washington and its western allies must abandon their backseat approach and take more serious action to force Assad relinquish power. The opposition needs to unite behind a single leadership and ask their supporters to reject violence. They must also try to bring unity among various sects and take steps to protect the minorities. Russia and China, two backers of Assad’s regime, must realize that their interests are best served by aligning themselves with the opposition.

Assad must seek a honourable exit, the possibility for which will recede as the uprising turns more bloody.