Sudan impasse Monday, 10 October 2011 02:36

North and South Sudan are heading towards an abyss again. Despite South Sudanese President Salva Kiir’s face-to-face talks with Sudan’s President Omar Hassan Al Bashir in Khartoum key issues remain unresolved. However, both presidents pledged to work together for peace and stability, and to put the years of conflict behind them. “We achieved the comprehensive peace agreement (in 2005) through joint efforts. By the same good will, we will not go back to war,” Bashir said. Both countries set up five committees to strengthen ties, especially on trade cooperation. The two sides reached an agreement last month to facilitate travel and trade after much of the joint border was closed in the run-up to southern independence.

Commentators doubt the likelihood of any landmark agreements and view Kiir’s visit as a confidence-building exercise that could lead to meaningful negotiations in future. South Sudan proclaimed formal independence from the north on July 9, after more than two decades of devastating civil war, a conflict fuelled by religion, ethnicity, ideology and resources such as oil, that left the south in ruins. Negotiations to regulate Sudan’s political and economic division, both prior to and since partition, have made only scant progress. Both sides have failed to reach an agreement how to divide up oil revenues. Around 75 percent of the country’s oil production now comes from the South.

Both countries have not reached an agreement on the contested Abyei region into which the north sent troops and tanks in a power play in May, triggering the exodus of tens of thousands civilians. Sudan’s split has created a new country in the Nile Basin. There is a bitter dispute between Egypt, which refuses to give up its major share of the Nile waters. The UN refugee agency said that the clashes in Blue Nile had caused more than 27,500 people to flee to Ethiopia and South Sudan in the past month.

Khartoum has avoided an “Arab Spring”, witnessing only small protests, but many ordinary Sudanese fret about inflation which has shot up to an annual rate of 21 percent in August from 15 percent in June. In November, inflation was 9.8 percent. The Sudanese pound has suffered a slide on the key black market due to a shortage of dollars. With oil revenues expected to fall it will be harder for the government to get foreign currency needed for food and other imports. As fas as South Sudan is concerned, the biggest challenge is to build an economy that depends on oil. Investors have been reluctant to commit money due to a lack of infrastructure, corruption and rampant rebel and tribal violence. North and South Sudan need to meet regularly and hold dialogue to resolve all pending issues.