Editorial: The litmus test Saturday, 22 October 2011 02:02

Tunisians go to the polls tomorrow in a first taste of democracy to turn the page on 23 years of autocratic rule. The vote is an historic first which could set the template for other Arab countries convulsed by the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings. The birthplace of the revolts which re-shaped the political landscape of the Middle East, Tunisia in January forced its leader Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali to flee to Saudi Arabia and set in train a transition to democracy. After Ben Ali fled, Egyptians ousted Hosni Mubarak and Libyan rebels brought down Muammar Gaddafi with help from Nato. Rulers in Syria and Yemen are clinging to power and others have been forced to make concessions to appease restive populations for fear of unrest. The elections will appoint a short-lived assembly to rewrite the constitution before parliamentary and presidential elections.

Turnout is the big unknown of the election, the first free vote. However, voter interest is low in a complex electoral landscape. Some 7.3 million potential balloters will elect 217 constituent assembly members from more than 10,000 candidates. The Islamist Ennahda party is the favourite to win the biggest bloc of votes. Experts say it is unlikely to win an outright majority, possibly compelling it to seek a coalition with smaller parties to gain a larger say on the assembly. The biggest leftist groupings, the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), Ettakol and the Modernist Democratic Pole remain divided, having failed to form a pre-election coalition. About 80 parties will contest the elections.

The key issue on the table concerns civil rights, including for women and the press. Many fear that Ennahda would carve away at women’s rights, widely regarded as the best protected in the Arab world. Some groupings are pushing for the personal status code that guarantee equal rights for Tunisian women in most aspects of life, to be included in the new constitution. If Ennahda does come to power, it will be the first election win for Islamists in the Arab world since Hamas won a 2006 vote in the Palestinian territories. Before that, Islamists won a 1991 legislative election in Algeria but that was annulled by the military and a brutal conflict followed. Egypt in particular will be watching Tunisia’s vote keenly. That country will start voting for a post-revolution parliament next month and the Muslim Brotherhood — close in ideology to Ennahda — is likely to do well.

Yet whoever ends up running the country, their most pressing problems will be economic. The problems that were at the root of the revolution — unemployment and poverty, are still there. Growth has plunged from a pre-revolution average annual rate of 4.5 percent to around 0.3 percent, tourism revenues are down 40 percent  and unemployment is 13 percent and rising. Last January Tunisia inscribed the first chapter in a book which is still being written. No one knows how it will end. The stakes are high. The success or failure of the election will send a strong signal to the people of the Arab world who drew courage from Tunisia’s revolutionary example.