Editorial: In turmoil again Monday, 19 December 2011 04:38

Unrest is flaring again in Egypt. The harsh scenes of soldiers beating protesters have fuelled a new round of anxiety in the West over the direction of the Arab Spring. The fresh violence marked the worst unrest in the capital since a six-day-long crackdown on demonstrators demanding an end to military rule last month left at least 42 people dead. Experts worried that the latest move against protesters could undercut voting in the final round of lower house elections — the first poll since president Hosni Mubarak’s ouster in February.

The unrest marked a peak in a fluctuating cycle of violence in recent months between security forces and protesters demanding that the country’s interim military rulers make good on their promise to oversee a transition to democratic rule. The initial popularity of the ruling generals has declined in the past 11 months, with activists blaming them for failing to reform government institutions and slowing the transition to civilian rule. The violence comes a day after judges said they were beaten by military police outside polling stations they were to supervise.

Few of the demands from the dizzying days of the winter revolt that ousted Mubarak have been fulfilled. Egypt’s security agencies have not been reformed. The despised emergency law that authorised the indefinite detention of civilians has been expanded rather than voided. Accusations of grave human rights abuses at the hands of the military rulers rival those that came to light during Mubarak’s 30-year rule. And to top it all, the country’s economy is imploding. Much remains unclear about how the new parliament will function and how much power it will be given by Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), headed by Mubarak’s former defence minister. The military has said it will step down only once a president has been elected by the end of June in the final stage of a protracted transition.

Early second-round results released indicated that the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party was reinforcing its lead, after winning about 47 percent of seats in the first round of voting. The ultraconservative Nour Party also appeared to have polled strongly, while the most successful liberal coalition, the Egyptian Bloc, had slipped. Hopes raised to a fever pitch by the events of January and February have suffered a crushing blow. Observing the victory of the Islamist parties last month, liberals’ miserable showing and the military’s determination to maintain an iron grip, some ask whether the end of Egyptian democracy is already in sight.