Doha: Researchers at Qatar University (QU), Weill Cornell Medicine – Qatar (WCM-Q), Ministry of Public Health, and Hamad Medical Corporation have developed a sophisticated mathematical model to inform the national COVID-19 public-health response and to help formulate evidence-based policy decisions to minimise the pandemic’s toll on health, society, and the economy.
The modeling study, published in the Journal of Global Health, was implemented in real-time, before the first case of community transmission of COVID-19 in Qatar, and was continuously updated and refined as more data became available. The model predicted with reasonable accuracy the key epidemiologic indicators, such as the epidemic peak and the impact of easing of restrictions and health care needs.
The study allowed monitoring of the effective reproduction number of the virus (known as Rt), which is a key measure of how fast the virus is spreading in the population. The plan for the easing of restrictions was implemented based on this estimate for Rt. This science-based approach proved to be a successful strategy as no second wave has materialised after more than seven months of the epidemic peak.
“The forecasts were quite close to what happened eventually. Qatar was able to prepare well for what was coming, and at no time was the health system overwhelmed with COVID-19 burden,” said Dr. Houssein Ayoub, lead author of the study and Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics at QU.
The study found that Qatar was able to flatten the epidemic curve. The public health interventions reduced the epidemic peaks for acute-care hospital admissions and ICU admissions by more than 75 percent, reducing the toll to a manageable level for the health care system. The study also found that majority of infections did not require hospitalisation.
The low infection severity appears to be a consequence of the young age profile of the population, and a well-funded health care system.
Dr. Laith Abu-Raddad, leader of the study team and Professor of Healthcare Policy and Research at WCM-Q, said, “Qatar successfully based its COVID-19 response on science-based epidemiological approaches including mathematical modeling. This approach continues to inform an effective public health response and to plan for more interventions such as vaccinations.”
