The global supply chain is experiencing a total disruption as the COVID 19 continues to spread to more than 90 countries. How well countries cope with the economic consequences will be determined by the strategies that are already in place to mitigate supply chain risks, said Professor Alexis Antoniades (pictured), Associate Professor and Director of International Economics at Georgetown University in Qatar.
“Countries that rely heavily on raw material from China will be affected the most, while countries that have diversified sources will not suffer as much. But supply chain disruptions are not the only concerns for countries. Countries that have weak healthcare infrastructure, rely heavily on tourism, and our not financially able to undertake significant fiscal stimulus will be hit hard,” Professor Antoniades said.
With Qatar becoming increasingly self-reliant in response to the blockade, it now manufactures many products that it previously didn’t. And as panic buying takes over, with shelf after shelf of disinfectant and hand sanitiser emptied by residents concerned about the threat of infection, local production will serve to calm many of the fears.
“In more ways than one, the blockade has been a blessing in disguise,” said Dr Antoniades, a professor at the QF partner university, and a twelve-year veteran of the Qatar economy. “In less than three years since the launch of the Gulf Crisis, the nation’s manufacturing sector has boomed. Last week we were out of hand sanitizer, but now shops are fully stocked with locally produced bottles. That’s the impact of ‘made in Qatar’.”
Given the current COVID 2019 outlook, public trust in governments and institutions in handling major crises will serve as a major driver of public perceptions and reactions. Broad government reassurances will need the backing of concrete measures and a foundation of trust to guide the country through the unfolding crisis.
“I think Qatar has done an excellent job in dealing with COVID 2019. First, they are inspiring confidence through reassuring messages and actions. They are transparent, decisive in their actions, clear, and quick to act.
“This was also the strategy when the blockade hit the country. Qatar made the best out of it, shielding the nation from the effects of the blockade, in the short term, while putting into place a strategy for protective long-term measures. For most people, life felt normal. So today, when the State says: Don’t worry, we’re on top of it; the public can believe it. That confidence is key in helping prevent panic and dealing with the developments.”
In particular, Professor Antoniades notes that Qatar’s move to evacuate residents and citizens from Iran using private charter planes was a strategic decision. “The State was very smart. They sent private planes to evacuate people in a controlled exercise that minimized the spread of the virus in an uncontrolled fashion. That was a very successful effort.”
And while Qatar takes part in the global effort to contain the virus, it also shares in the global economic toll of the slowing economy, which continues to head into a recession. With an economic dependency on hydrocarbons – it receives a large part of revenue by selling Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – Qatar is also impacted by the drop in the LNG market, according to Professor Antoniades.
