World Business

Doha, Qatar: Qatar National Bank (QNB) highlighted the expected shift in the US monetary policy approach under Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, saying the next phase could see a reassessment of the balance between forward guidance and policymakers' flexibility in managing monetary policy in response to increasingly complex economic challenges. In its weekly report, QNB said US monetary policy has undergone significant changes over the past two decades, evolving from a framework largely based on policy discretion to one characterized by greater transparency and communication with financial markets, particularly in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. QNB noted that the recent passing of former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan has renewed debate over the evolution of US monetary policymaking, particularly regarding how much guidance the central bank should provide about the future path of interest rates. The report said greater transparency and forward guidance can reduce uncertainty and strengthen monetary policy transmission, but cautioned that excessive commitment to a predetermined policy path may reduce policymakers' ability to respond effectively to major economic shocks. QNB explained that the Greenspan era (1987-2006) was characterized by a high degree of policy discretion and limited communication about the future path of monetary policy. This reflected the view that preserving flexibility was essential in an uncertain economic environment, allowing policymakers to respond to evolving conditions without being constrained by earlier commitments. The report added that the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009) marked a turning point in the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy communication. As the federal funds rate was rapidly reduced to near zero, reaching the effective lower bound, influencing market expectations through communication about the future path of interest rates and the economic outlook became an increasingly important policy tool. QNB said forward guidance subsequently emerged as an integral component of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, helping reduce longer-term borrowing costs and support economic activity even when short-term interest rates were already close to zero. The report noted that over recent decades, the Federal Reserve has faced an extraordinary series of major economic and financial shocks, including the collapse of the dot-com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis, the Covid-19 pandemic, rising trade tensions and tariff wars, as well as geopolitical conflicts. These developments reinforced the importance of communication as a complement to conventional monetary policy. QNB pointed out that the current economic environment differs markedly from that of the post-Global Financial Crisis period, with policymakers now confronting recurring supply shocks, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, trade conflicts, and structural changes associated with artificial intelligence. The report said these conditions have increased the importance of preserving policy flexibility, particularly amid multiple sources of uncertainty and rapidly evolving economic and financial conditions. QNB noted that Chair Kevin Warsh has established internal task teams to review key aspects of the Federal Reserve's policy framework, including its communication practices, suggesting a willingness to reassess approaches that have become established over the past two decades and potentially move toward a framework that places less emphasis on forward guidance while allowing greater flexibility in responding to new developments. The report said the evolution of the Federal Reserve's communication strategy reflects the changing nature of the challenges confronting the US and global economies. While greater transparency and forward guidance were well suited to the post-Global Financial Crisis environment of weak demand and subdued inflation, today's environment may require a different balance between policy commitment and flexibility. QNB concluded that the future direction of monetary policy under Chair Kevin Warsh will depend largely on the Federal Reserve's ability to strike an appropriate balance between providing markets with sufficient clarity while preserving the flexibility needed to respond swiftly to changing economic conditions. It added that the course of US monetary policy will continue to be shaped primarily by inflation, economic growth and global financial conditions.

Qatar Business

Doha, Qatar: The Qatar Central Bank’s Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS) settled around 497 million large value electronic transactions worth QR10.26 trillion on a gross basis in last year, QCB revealed in its latest Financial Stability Review 2025. In addition, RTGS settled batches of net interbank obligations arising from other payment systems and large value cheques on a gross basis, it noted. The Real-Time Gross Settlement System (QA-RTGS) operated by the QCB is a centralised system for immediate, aggregate, and interbank financial transactions in Qatar. It serves as a settlement point for all retail payment systems in the country, utilising central accounts linked to bank balances with the QCB, and also settles financial instrument operations, including public debt (government bonds and sukuk) and QCB bonds and sukuk. In December 2025, the QCB announced the activation of foreign currency transfer services through the Real Time Gross Settlement System between local banks. This activation enables both Qatari Riyal and foreign currency transactions to be processed and settled locally with greater efficiency and flexibility. In recent years, the retail payment ecosystem has continued to evolve, reflecting shifts in consumer behaviour, advancements in technology, and the growing adoption of digital payment solutions. The total value of payments across all retail payment systems increased by 82.1%, to reach QR1051.8bn in 2025. With total transaction volume of 352.3 million showing increase of 23.7% for the year 2025, reflecting broader adoption of electronic payment channels. The report said that the overall increase in the total value of payment system can be primarily attributed to the Direct Deposit and Debit System (Tahweel) system which carries the largest share of the increase in payment systems value. The increase in the total volume of payment systems was mainly due to the increase in National Network System for ATMs and Points of Sale (NAPS) transaction volume. On the other hand, Electronic Cheque Clearing System (ECC) transactions value has increased by 1.1% while the transactions volume has slightly increased by 1.90%, indicating a relatively stable and mature usage pattern rather than accelerated growth. This suggests a gradual shift away from traditional paper- based payment instruments. Qatar Mobile Payment system rose in value by 69.05% and 110.53% in transactions volume, reflecting the continued diversification of payment channels and the growing adoption of digital payment solutions. NAPS accounted for the largest share of total transaction volume in 2025 at 83.8% (295.3 out of 352.3 million transactions. However, its share declined from 90.2% in 2024, indicating a gradual redistribution of transaction volumes across alternative electronic payment channels. This decline reflects the increasing adoption of instant payments through Fawran, as well as the growing utilisation of Mobile Payment System (QMP) and Tahweel, which collectively contributed to the diversification of payment channels and reduced reliance on traditional card-based and ATM transactions. The distribution of card payment transactions across different channels shows a slight shift in usage patterns between 2024 and 2025. In terms of transactions volume, POS held the largest share in both years which grew from 79% in 2024 to 81% in 2025, reflecting the widespread use for everyday purchases, the review noted. On the other hand, ATM transactions while still significant has dropped by 4 percentage points from 16% to 12% in last year, which indicates a trend towards less withdrawals as digital payments become more common. When looking at transaction value, ATM accounted for the highest shares in both years. However, in 2025 the value shares of point-of-sale (POS) and Electronic Payment Gateway (QPay) increased for both channels. It further stated that consistent growth was observed in Instant payments system (Fawran) usage during last year. Fawran transactions volume grew at a monthly average of 13% during 2025 to almost a total of 22.8 million transactions, while the value grew at a monthly average of 12% with total QR37.3bn by the end of the year, reflecting an increasing adoption of digital payments within the country.

Stock Market

Doha, Qatar: The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) index ended the week down 1.11 percent, shedding 111.79 points from last week's close to finish at 9,920 points. The decline was driven by losses across five sectors, while the transportation and banking and financial services sectors posted gains. Financial analyst Mubarak Al Tamimi told Qatar News Agency (QNA) that the QSE general index has been trading sideways with a downward bias for several months. He noted that the market opened the week at 10,032 points and closed at 9,920 points, predicting it could decline to 9,727 points in the coming period. He added that this level represents an attractive buying opportunity for investors, offering the potential for stronger returns in the future. QSE data for the week showed that the telecommunications sector recorded the steepest decline, falling 6.08 percent, followed by the industrial sector at 2.80 percent, insurance at 2.23 percent, real estate at 1.40 percent, and consumer goods and services at 0.36 percent. Meanwhile, the transportation sector gained 0.43 percent, while the banking and financial services sector edged up 0.03 percent. Al Tamimi said investors continue to assess the geopolitical risks stemming from the five-month-long war in the region and its implications for local, regional, and global financial markets. At the same time, he noted that positive first-half earnings reported by several companies have strengthened investor confidence. He added that stable interest rates also remain a supportive factor, enhancing the market's attractiveness. During the week, a total of 654,832,195 shares were traded, with a value exceeding QAR 1.563 billion through 126,679 transactions across all sectors. Yesterday, Qatar Central Bank decided to keep its current deposit, lending, and repurchase rates unchanged following its assessment of the State of Qatar's monetary policy. In a statement, the Bank said the deposit rate (QCBDR) will remain at 3.85 percent, the lending rate (QCBLR) at 4.35 percent, and the repurchase rate (QCB Repo Rate) at 4.10 percent