Dr. Evren Tok
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, due to the ongoing conflict, did more than spike oil prices; it exposed the vulnerability of the world’s most critical energy corridor linking Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states with East Asian markets. Oil prices have already broken above $100 per barrel, with the regional crisis threatening to push prices past the $200 mark.
These trade disruptions have strained regional alliances and relationships, especially between the GCC and its Asian trading partners, which account for over half the former’s total exports. The relationship is best understood as a form of asymmetric geo-economic interdependence minus a commensurate shared security architecture. Gulf producers depend on Asian demand, while Asian economies rely on Gulf hydrocarbons and transport corridors. Since most crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped through the Strait of Hormuz are destined for Asia, these partnerships are now facing heavy pressure.
- Energy Anchor
Trade between Qatar and Japan has been particularly affected, not only due to closed shipping lanes, but also because the Gulf state, which supplies Japan with around 3.4 million tons of LNG per year, has halted production following drone and missile attacks on its facilities. This disruption is further compounded by Japan’s energy dependence as it imports around 95% of its crude oil from the Middle East. Natural gas and other energy exports, such as crude and refined petroleum have been a key anchor of Doha’s and Tokyo’s dynamic relationship, dating back to 1997, when Japan became Qatar’s first LNG customer. As of 2024, total bilateral trade between both countries stood at $8.75bn, comprising $7.11bn in Qatari exports and $1.64bn in imports.
While Qatar has been a reliable long-term partner for Japan’s energy security — particularly during crises such as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake — Japanese expertise has also contributed to major domestic infrastructure projects, including the Doha Metro and Hamad International Airport. This historical pattern is one of the drivers behind the recently concluded 27-year LNG agreement between JERA and QatarEnergy, which will guarantee a supply of three million tons per year from 2028.
- Evolving Partnership
Although trade remains central, current engagement between Qatar and Japan extends far beyond. Both countries have, for example, invested in the clean energy transition through joint ventures in solar power generation, hydrogen, and ammonia supply chains. One such case is the agreement between QatarEnergy and Sumitomo Corporation, under which the latter will supply Nippon Steel-made oil wells to the CCS facility linked to Qatar’s blue ammonia plant at Mesaieed. Another example is the 800 MW Al-Kharsaah solar power plant, jointly owned by QatarEnergy, Japanese Marubeni Corporation, and TotalEnergies. This dynamic also extends to projects in other sectors, including finance, artificial intelligence, and entertainment.
The partnership increasingly covers security and defence cooperation as Japan aims to build a more proactive posture in the Indo-Pacific. This was first exemplified when the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) destroyer Murasame made a historic port call in Doha in November 2024 and engaged in goodwill training with the Qatari Amiri Navy. Security ties were eventually formalised through the Third Qatar-Japan Strategic Dialogue, which aims to strengthen maritime coordination and support freedom of navigation.
On the diplomatic front, Japan’s reliance on Qatari mediation in Afghanistan and Gaza demonstrates that interdependence is as much about soft power as defence, energy, and infrastructure. This allows Japan to better engage with regional trade partners and access humanitarian channels and diplomatic efforts through which it can direct aid and interventions. Japan’s embassy in Afghanistan was temporarily relocated to Doha on September 1, 2021, after the fall of the previous government, the US withdrawal from the state and the takeover by the Taliban. This development has been critically important in deepening Qatar’s partnership with Japan by cementing Doha’s position as a diplomatic hub.
In doing so, the country has moved beyond being an energy supplier to a key geopolitical intermediary in a volatile region where direct access is limited. For Japan, leveraging that channel served three strategic purposes. First, it allowed Japan to facilitate the evacuation of its nationals and Afghan partners. Second, Tokyo maintained its Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitments by ensuring a consistent flow of humanitarian aid into Afghanistan, thanks to the access and network Doha provides. Third and concurrently, it reinforced Japan’s image as a constructive, humanitarian and non-confrontational actor in the region.
- From Gas to Security
As highlighted earlier, the Third Qatar-Japan Strategic Dialogue in January 2026 provided an opportunity to advance talks on maritime security cooperation within the broader context of bilateral engagement. Given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, the current conflict has inadvertently made key security discussions an urgent survival requirement. What was discussed during the dialogue as a long-term goal has been instantly stress-tested by the reality of the Strait’s closure.
Ultimately, the partnership between Qatar and Japan can be operationalised through three key mutually reinforcing streams. The first is energy resilience: keeping Qatari LNG production, export terminals, and shipping lanes reliable during a crisis. The second is maritime coordination: protecting commercial routes and freedom of navigation across key sea corridors linking the Gulf to East Asia. The third is diplomatic and humanitarian cooperation: using Qatar’s mediation role and regional access to help Japan sustain dialogue, support aid delivery, and remain engaged in conflict settings. Accordingly, this synergy should represent an energy relationship as well as a strategic form of interdependence. The longer the conflict continues the more it threatens the wider political, economic, and institutional architecture connecting the GCC to East Asia.
—Dr. Evren Tok is the Associate Dean of Community Engagement and Associate Professor at Hamad Bin Khalifa University’s College of Public Policy.
Dr. M. Evren Tok is the Associate Dean for Community Engagement and Associate Professor at the College of Public Policy, HBKU
