Executive Director of the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) Dr. Mohamed Ali Chihi speaking at the seminar.
Doha, Qatar: A seminar hosted by the Qatar Press Center (QPC) has stressed the need for sustained diplomatic efforts to contain tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, warning that prolonged disruption to maritime traffic could trigger far-reaching consequences for global energy markets, food security and regional stability.
The seminar, titled “The Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Challenges and Solutions,” featured Executive Director of the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR) Dr. Mohamed Ali Chihi, and was moderated by Qatar TV presenter Tariq Al Ajji. GISR is a member of Hamad Bin Khalifa University.
Discussions focused on the strategic importance of the waterway, the limits of escalation between Iran and the United States, the wider implications for Gulf countries, and the role of mediation in preventing the current confrontation from developing into a broader regional conflict.
Dr. Chihi said the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most sensitive pressure points in the confrontation, noting that its significance extends beyond energy supplies. Around 20 percent of global energy supplies pass through the strait, while any disruption would also affect shipping, industrial production, agriculture and the movement of essential commodities.
He explained that for Iran, the strait represents a powerful pressure tool because even a partial obstruction or interference with maritime traffic can have an impact well beyond the region. The geography of the waterway, combined with the growing use of relatively inexpensive technologies such as drones, unmanned surface vessels and underwater systems, creates opportunities for disruption that could impose substantial costs on international shipping.
At the same time, he said the United States has a strategic interest in ensuring freedom of navigation, as any prolonged disruption would affect the American economy and global markets. He cautioned that allowing any country to establish control over a major international maritime passage could also set a precedent for similar disputes in other strategic waterways, including the Bab Al Mandeb Strait.
The speaker stressed, however, that Iran’s ability to use the strait as leverage has limits. A complete closure would not only harm international markets but would also severely damage Iran’s own economy, particularly because the overwhelming majority of its oil and gas resources are located in the south and depend on maritime export routes.
He noted that Iran is already facing economic and social pressures, making a prolonged disruption potentially counterproductive. Continued escalation could also alienate countries that might otherwise maintain relations with Tehran, including major economic partners. The seminar highlighted the broader economic repercussions of the crisis, including rising oil prices, higher transportation and insurance costs, pressure on industrial production and increased risks to food security. Prices exceeding $100 per barrel, Dr. Chihi said, would place additional strain on economies worldwide, particularly poorer countries that have limited capacity to absorb higher energy and food costs.
Addressing the prospects of further escalation between Washington and Tehran, he said neither side appeared interested in an open-ended war, although both would seek to avoid appearing to have been defeated. This could create a dangerous situation of “neither war nor peace”, characterised by limited strikes, economic pressure, indirect confrontation and intermittent negotiations.
He argued that the nuclear issue was no longer the only element shaping the confrontation, as missile capabilities, drones, regional alliances and maritime security had increasingly become part of the wider equation. The expansion of demands on both sides has made a comprehensive settlement more difficult, increasing the importance of back-channel communication and confidence-building measures.
Dr. Chihi said Gulf countries were among the parties most directly affected by the crisis and should strengthen coordination among themselves while maintaining open channels with Iran. He called for discussions on a regional code of conduct governing maritime security and relations among neighbouring states, alongside greater investment in indigenous defence capabilities and strategic industries.
He also emphasised that dialogue with Iran remains necessary because geography cannot be changed.
On Qatar’s role, Dr. Chihi said Doha’s established relations with different parties and its record in facilitating dialogue gave it the ability to help reduce tensions. Qatar could contribute to lowering the level of escalation, maintaining communication channels and helping the parties explore understandings.
He noted that Qatar could potentially help bridge differences over disputed issues, facilitate indirect communication and support arrangements that prevent maritime incidents from triggering wider confrontation.
